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Which is the best college football conference in 2017?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2017

FBS medianBig TenACCSECFBS IndependentsConference USAMid-AmericanBig 12Sun BeltPac-12Mountain WestAmerican Athlet…

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten140.0640.131Wisconsin -0.039
ACC140.1180.080Clemson -0.049
SEC140.1300.145Alabama -0.047
FBS Independents40.1350.068Notre Dame 0.061
Conference USA140.1410.152UTSA 0.028
Mid-American120.1450.125Northern Illinois 0.000
Big 12100.1450.070Texas 0.015
Sun Belt120.1540.180Troy 0.009
Pac-12120.1720.118Washington 0.017
Mountain West120.2020.168Wyoming 0.009
American Athletic120.2300.140South Florida 0.042

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.