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Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2015

FBS medianBig TenSECMid-AmericanACCFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Conference USABig 12Pac-12Sun BeltMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten140.0910.126Northwestern -0.029
SEC140.0930.103Alabama -0.011
Mid-American130.1060.091Toledo 0.029
ACC140.1340.075Boston College -0.107
FBS Independents30.1410.137BYU 0.054
American Athletic120.1430.147Temple 0.035
Conference USA130.1520.092Marshall -0.001
Big 12100.1560.149West Virginia 0.055
Pac-12120.1590.090Washington 0.029
Sun Belt110.1680.178App State -0.025
Mountain West120.1680.080San Diego State -0.010

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.