Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2014

FBS medianSECACCBig TenAmerican Athlet…Big 12Pac-12Mountain WestMid-AmericanSun BeltConference USAFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC140.0890.117Ole Miss -0.047
ACC140.0910.090Clemson -0.052
Big Ten140.0950.055Penn State -0.044
American Athletic110.1060.137Temple -0.017
Big 12100.1100.111TCU -0.014
Pac-12120.1190.138Stanford 0.013
Mountain West120.1600.107Utah State 0.026
Mid-American130.1620.032Western Michigan 0.073
Sun Belt110.1630.155App State 0.095
Conference USA130.1730.094Marshall 0.029
FBS Independents40.1780.074BYU 0.086

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.