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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE overall · 2016

FBS medianACCBig 12Pac-12SECBig TenFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestConference USAMid-AmericanSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
ACC1410.818.7Clemson 33.3
Big 12106.312.4Oklahoma 24.2
Pac-12125.315.5Washington 33.4
SEC145.014.0Alabama 44.4
Big Ten143.617.6Ohio State 28.9
FBS Independents40.63512.8Notre Dame 8.3
American Athletic12-0.34515.3South Florida 9.9
Mountain West12-2.619.4San Diego State 14.9
Conference USA13-7.023.3Western Kentucky 22.7
Mid-American12-7.614.3Western Michigan 13.1
Sun Belt11-14.818.5App State 13.8

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.