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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive · 2014

FBS medianFBS IndependentsPac-12SECACCConference USASun BeltBig 12Mid-AmericanMountain WestBig TenAmerican Athlet…

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents42.40.366Navy 2.7
Pac-12122.20.608Oregon 3.6
SEC142.20.662Georgia 3.3
ACC142.21.0Georgia Tech 3.5
Conference USA132.10.925Marshall 3.3
Sun Belt112.10.908Georgia Southern 3.2
Big 12102.11.1Baylor 3.3
Mid-American132.00.824Toledo 2.9
Mountain West121.90.863Boise State 2.7
Big Ten141.80.959Ohio State 3.3
American Athletic111.61.1Cincinnati 2.5

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.