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Which is the best college football conference in 2024?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2024

FBS medianPac-12SECBig 12Sun BeltFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestBig TenACCMid-AmericanConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-1220.2230.162Washington State 0.304
SEC160.2200.062Ole Miss 0.351
Big 12160.2160.087Kansas 0.314
Sun Belt140.1880.074South Alabama 0.348
FBS Independents30.1780.137Notre Dame 0.301
American Athletic140.1770.168Army 0.310
Mountain West120.1710.112Boise State 0.333
Big Ten180.1700.113Ohio State 0.369
ACC170.1680.128Miami 0.411
Mid-American120.1400.130Western Michigan 0.231
Conference USA100.1080.150Jacksonville State 0.280

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.