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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2014

FBS medianFBS IndependentsPac-12Big 12SECACCBig TenMountain WestMid-AmericanSun BeltConference USAAmerican Athlet…

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents40.1890.089Navy 0.267
Pac-12120.1760.063Oregon 0.396
Big 12100.1750.176Baylor 0.321
SEC140.1690.151Georgia 0.313
ACC140.1530.170Georgia Tech 0.342
Big Ten140.1390.098Ohio State 0.306
Mountain West120.1340.116Colorado State 0.317
Mid-American130.1260.140Toledo 0.273
Sun Belt110.1260.127Georgia Southern 0.361
Conference USA130.1060.177Marshall 0.351
American Athletic110.0820.204Cincinnati 0.264

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.