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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense explosiveness · 2014

FBS medianMountain WestPac-12Big 12SECSun BeltBig TenMid-AmericanAmerican Athlet…Conference USAFBS IndependentsACC

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Mountain West121.30.136New Mexico 1.5
Pac-12121.30.157Washington State 1.3
Big 12101.20.027Texas Tech 1.4
SEC141.20.097Ole Miss 1.3
Sun Belt111.20.167New Mexico State 1.3
Big Ten141.20.077Indiana 1.3
Mid-American131.20.187Massachusetts 1.4
American Athletic111.20.113Cincinnati 1.3
Conference USA131.20.152Marshall 1.3
FBS Independents41.20.128Notre Dame 1.3
ACC141.10.143Boston College 1.3

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.