UCLA vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick — Nov 21, 2026

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

MICH 1786

UCLA 1322

Projected spread

MICH -22.4

incl. home edge

Model pick

MICH

95% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

95%

MICH (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MICH Elo 1786, UCLA Elo 1322) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -22.4 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelUCLA 5% · MICH 95%

Pick: MICH

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Season stats — 2025

UCLA2025 season · national rank shownMICH

319.8120th

Total yards / game

397.958th

5.2107th

Yards / play

6.229th

180.3115th

Passing yards / game

186.8107th

139.685th

Rushing yards / game

211.214th

37.3%92nd

3rd down %

43.6%32nd

387.385th

Yards allowed / game

323.624th

55.2%136th

3rd down % allowed

37.4%52nd

-386th

Turnover margin

+254th

7.5122nd

Penalties / game

4.413th

Key matchups · Pro

UCLA rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge UCLA.
MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge UCLA.
UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge MICH.

FAQ

Who will win UCLA vs. Michigan?

Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 95% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for UCLA vs. Michigan?

The model projects Michigan by 22.4.

What time is UCLA vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?

Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this Michigan at 95% to win, projecting Michigan by 22.4.