Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (EMU Elo 1239, SJSU Elo 1146) plus home-field advantage. That projects EMU -3.9 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: EMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- SJSU pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. Eastern Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Eastern Michigan with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. Eastern Michigan?
The model projects Eastern Michigan by 3.9.
What time is San José State vs. Eastern Michigan and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 4, 10:30 PM on ESPN+, at Rynearson Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Eastern Michigan at 61% to win, projecting Eastern Michigan by 3.9. I'm close to the market here. Who's got an angle the model's missing?