Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEB 1558
OSU 2138
Projected spread
NEB +21.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
94% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
NEB (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NEB Elo 1558, OSU Elo 2138) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB +21.2 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelOSU 94% · NEB 6%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
OSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNEB
Offense
0.31
PPA / play
0.1652%
Success rate
46%1.16
Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. NEB pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge OSU.
- NEB rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge NEB.
- OSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NEB rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NEB.
FAQ
Who will win Ohio State vs. Nebraska?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio State vs. Nebraska?
The model projects Ohio State by 21.2.
What time is Ohio State vs. Nebraska and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 94% to win, projecting Ohio State by 21.2.