Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WIS Elo 1502, ND Elo 2243) on a neutral field. That projects WIS +29.2 (2% to win) — 8.7 points of value on ND versus the market line of +20.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: ND · 7 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. WIS rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. WIS pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge ND.
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin?
The model projects Notre Dame by 29.2.
What time is Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin and what channel is it on?
Sun, Sep 6, 11:30 PM on NBC, at Lambeau Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Notre Dame at 98% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 29.2. That's 7 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?