Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, MIA Elo 2014) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 74% win probability.
The model projects Notre Dame by 8.6.
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM on NBC, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Notre Dame at 74% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 8.6.
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