Notre Dame StadiumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2243
MIA 2014
Projected spread
ND -8.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
74% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
ND (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, MIA Elo 2014) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMIA 26% · ND 74%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MIA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.3646%
Success rate
49%1.16
Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge MIA.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MIA rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Miami vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 8.6.
What time is Miami vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM on NBC, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 74% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 8.6.