BYU vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where BYU gets at Kansas: 15th at throwing it, against a unit 99th at defending the pass. Kansas projects no clear way in against BYU. BYU is also 13th at running it, against a unit 94th.
How
BYUattacks
KU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BYU#15 of 138KU#99 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
BYU#13 of 138KU#94 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
BYU#13 of 138KU#91 of 138
The two teams
BYU
BYU is in year 11 under Kalani Sitake, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 135th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
BYU has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#4projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 131st at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 126th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#23projected
- Offensefirst and second down#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1485, BYU Elo 1683 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +17.9 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BYU29th63rdKUKU69th37thBYUThrough the air
BYU84th67thKUKU53rd56thBYUOn the ground
BYU27th58thKUKU63rd19thBYUStaying on the field
BYU4th46thKUKU78th90thBYUTaking care of it
BYU1st76thKUKU104th9thBYU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.5 (#27) | CORE overall | -5.6 (#95) |
| +12 / -3 | offense / defense | -0 / +5 |
| 3.11 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 3.46 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. Kansas?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. Kansas?
The model projects BYU by 17.9.
What time is BYU vs. Kansas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →