Canvas StadiumCBS
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CSU 1155
BYU 1750
Projected spread
CSU +25.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
3%
CSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (CSU Elo 1155, BYU Elo 1750) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +25.6 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBYU 97% · CSU 3%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BYU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCSU
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.1346%
Success rate
40%1.19
Key matchups · Pro
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BYU.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge CSU.
FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. Colorado State?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. Colorado State?
The model projects BYU by 25.6.
What time is BYU vs. Colorado State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM on CBS, at Canvas Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 97% to win, projecting BYU by 25.6.