| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MINN | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1491, WIS Elo 1521) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN -1.2 (54% to win) — 3.7 points of value on MINN versus the market line of +2.5.
MINN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wisconsin 7, Minnesota 17.
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MINN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(02:52) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 49 yards gain to the WISC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:45, 1ST DOWN #92 B.Denaburg kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup)
(02:07) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete deep right to #8 V.Anthony II caught at WISC50, for 67 yards to the MINN05 (#24 J.McMillan), 1ST DOWN
End of 3rd quarter.
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