Wisconsin vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsMINN
- Q3 5:04MINNJameson Geers 13 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:27WISJackson Acker 1 Yd pass from Carter Smith (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–10
- Q2 2:45MINNDarius Taylor 49 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–10
- Q2 6:32MINNBrady Denaburg 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassHunter Simmons 12/19, 162 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDarrion Dupree 12 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecVinny Anthony II 4 REC, 92 YDS
- PassDrake Lindsey 18/24, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 19 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJameson Geers 4 REC, 27 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:53WIS +24%
Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #1 D.Taylor caught at MINN27, for 5 yards to the MINN35 (#44 C.Catalano) PENALTY WISC Illegal Substitution 5 yards fro…
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Minnesota?
Wisconsin 7, Minnesota 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| WIS | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 218 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 90 |
| 86 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 11 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-9 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 29:28 | Possession | 30:32 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:37 WIS punt on 4th & 8 at MINN 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 5:04MINNJameson Geers 13 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:27WISJackson Acker 1 Yd pass from Carter Smith (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–10
- Q2 2:45MINNDarius Taylor 49 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–10
- Q2 6:32MINNBrady Denaburg 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1491, WIS Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -1.2 (54% to win) — 3.7 points clear of MINN's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWisconsin leads 63–62–8 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| WIS | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#72) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| -11 / -8 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 1.23 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →