| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| IU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2150, WIS Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -30 (99% to win) — 2.0 points of value on IU versus the market line of -28.
IU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wisconsin 7, Indiana 31.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:48) #5 C.Smith pass complete short middle to #86 L.Mason caught at IND27, for 45 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:42, 1ST DOWN #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)
(13:53) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep middle to #80 C.Becker caught at WIS34, for 48 yards to the WIS25 (#9 A.Brown), 1ST DOWN
(03:01) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #80 C.Becker caught at WIS00, for 31 yards to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:56, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
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