Washington vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsMICH
- Q4 4:10MICHDominic Zvada 26 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q4 10:05MICHZack Marshall 10 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–21
- Q3 1:20MICHJordan Marshall 14 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:40WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:33MICHAndrew Marsh 22 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 20/32, 209 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJonah Coleman 16 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDenzel Boston 4 REC, 71 YDS
- PassBryce Underwood 21/27, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Marshall 25 CAR, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZack Marshall 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:20MICH +35%
Jordan Marshall run for 14 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q2 0:40WASH +21%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q1 0:33MICH +16%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 22 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q3 1:26WASH +11%
Demond Williams Jr. pass intercepted Cole Sullivan return for 8 yds to the WASH 14
- Q3 1:30MICH +10%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 18
- Q3 6:37WASH +8%
Shotgun Williams Jr.,Demond pass incomplete short right to Coleman,Jonah thrown to WASH24 broken up by Hausmann,Ernest PENALTY WASH Holding (DeGraaf,Decker) 8 yards fr…
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Michigan?
Washington 7, Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| WASH | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 249 | Total yards | 417 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 187 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 21/28 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 22:31 | Possession | 37:29 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:30 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:10MICHDominic Zvada 26 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q4 10:05MICHZack Marshall 10 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–21
- Q3 1:20MICHJordan Marshall 14 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:40WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:33MICHAndrew Marsh 22 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1812, WASH Elo 1701 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -6.8 (69% to win) — 2.8 points clear of MICH's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 10–6 · 31% have been one-possession games
| WASH | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.7 (#11) | CORE overall | +17.4 (#22) |
| +13 / -9 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →