| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MICH | 7 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1812, WASH Elo 1701) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -6.8 (69% to win) — 2.8 points of value on MICH versus the market line of -4.
MICH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Washington 7, Michigan 24.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the WASH 5
Demond Williams Jr. pass intercepted Jimmy Rolder return for 2 yds to the MICH 38
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Deakon Tonielli for 28 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST down
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