Vaught-Hemingway StadiumClosing line: MISS -33 · WSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MISS | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Team stats
WSUthis game · better side highlightedMISS
345
Total yards
439218
Passing yards
253127
Rushing yards
18621
First downs
252-10 · 20%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 1977
WSU 1355
Projected spread
MISS -27.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
98% to win
Market spread
MISS -33
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
5.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
98%
MISS (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1977, WSU Elo 1355) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -27.3 (98% to win) — 5.7 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -33.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MISS (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge MISS.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 4/10 scoring drives
MISSDOWNS11 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q1
WSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 4Q1
MISSMISS7 pl, 26 yds· own 45Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MISS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
MISS went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Ole Miss?
Washington State 21, Ole Miss 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.