Washington State vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsMISS
- Q4 2:43WSUTony Freeman 19 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)21–24
- Q4 6:51MISSCayden Lee 35 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:32MISSTrinidad Chambliss 17 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q3 10:19WSUKirby Vorhees 46 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:31MISSDae'Quan Wright 2 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:19MISSLucas Carneiro 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:58WSULandon Wright 26 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassZevi Eckhaus 24/31, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKirby Vorhees 10 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTony Freeman 9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 20/29, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 24 CAR, 142 YDS
- RecDae'Quan Wright 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:32MISS +22%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 17 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q4 2:43WSU +21%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
- Q4 1:14MISS +20%
PENALTY OM Delay Of Game 5 yards from WSU44 to WSU49. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:00WSU +18%
Kirby Vorhees run for 6 yds to the WSU 16
- Q4 0:03MISS +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete deep middle to Neal Jr.,Leon thrown to OM29 PENALTY OM Pass Interference (Gushiken,Kapena) 14 yards from WSU22 to WSU36,…
- Q3 10:19WSU +17%
Kirby Vorhees run for 46 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Ole Miss?
Washington State 21, Ole Miss 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| WSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total yards | 439 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/31 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 8-99 |
| 32:42 | Possession | 27:18 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:10 WSU field goal on 4th & 5 at MISS 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:43WSUTony Freeman 19 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)21–24
- Q4 6:51MISSCayden Lee 35 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:32MISSTrinidad Chambliss 17 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q3 10:19WSUKirby Vorhees 46 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:31MISSDae'Quan Wright 2 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:19MISSLucas Carneiro 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:58WSULandon Wright 26 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1977, WSU Elo 1355 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -27.3 (95% to win) — 5.7 points clear of WSU's market line of -33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →