Virginia vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsLOU
- OT 0:00UVAJ'Mari Taylor 2 Yd Run 30–27
- OT 0:00LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 1:08LOUCooper Ranvier 50 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 9:41LOUChris Bell 13 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–21
- Q3 0:30UVAWill Bettridge 46 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 6:25UVAKam Robinson 47 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)21–14
- Q2 3:26LOUChris Bell 15 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:56UVACam Ross 19 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:00LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:12UVADonavon Platt 61 Yd Fumble Return (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChandler Morris 19/31, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCameron Ross 4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMiller Moss 34/48, 329 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaac Brown 13 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecChris Bell 12 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00LOU +87%
C.Ranvier 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-S.Kochav, Holder-D.Chapeau
- OT 0:00UVA +80%
J.Taylor rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:08LOU +58%
Cooper Ranvier 50 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:55UVA +50%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 1 yd to the UVA 26
- Q4 9:41LOU +35%
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q3 6:25UVA +28%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Kam Robinson return for 47 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Louisville?
Virginia 30, Louisville 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UVA | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Total yards | 383 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 329 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 54 |
| 14 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 34/48 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-68 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 27:41 | Possession | 32:19 |
Costliest call
Q4 1:08 LOU field goal on 4th & 2 at UVA 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00UVAJ'Mari Taylor 2 Yd Run 30–27
- OT 0:00LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 1:08LOUCooper Ranvier 50 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 9:41LOUChris Bell 13 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–21
- Q3 0:30UVAWill Bettridge 46 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 6:25UVAKam Robinson 47 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)21–14
- Q2 3:26LOUChris Bell 15 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:56UVACam Ross 19 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:00LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:12UVADonavon Platt 61 Yd Fumble Return (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1750, UVA Elo 1578 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -9.3 (74% to win) — 2.8 points clear of LOU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisville leads 8–6 · 71% have been one-possession games
| UVA | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →