L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumConference gameClosing line: LOU -6.5 · UVA covered
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 30 |
| LOU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1750, UVA Elo 1578) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -9.3 (75% to win) — 2.8 points of value on LOU versus the market line of -6.5.
UVA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Virginia 30, Louisville 27.
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LOU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Miller Moss pass intercepted Kam Robinson return for 47 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
Miller Moss pass complete to Kris Hughes for 33 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down
Chandler Morris pass complete to Cam Ross for 19 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →