Vanderbilt vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsALA
- Q4 0:17ALAJam Miller 20 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)14–30
- Q4 4:08ALAConor Talty 30 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q3 1:17ALAConor Talty 30 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 9:15ALAConor Talty 38 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 0:17ALAGermie Bernard 27 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:33VANSedrick Alexander 4 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q2 9:22ALARyan Williams 14 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:34VANSedrick Alexander 65 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 21/35, 198 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSedrick Alexander 4 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Sherrill 6 REC, 49 YDS
- PassTy Simpson 23/31, 340 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJam Miller 22 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Coleman-Williams 6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:33VAN +24%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q2 0:17ALA +24%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
- Q2 9:22ALA +20%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
- Q1 6:34VAN +18%
Sedrick Alexander run for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 1:17ALA +16%
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:15ALA +14%
Conor Talty 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Alabama?
Vanderbilt 14, Alabama 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| VAN | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 486 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 340 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 16 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 23/31 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-52 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 22:37 | Possession | 37:23 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:49 VAN punt on 4th & 4 at VAN 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.22 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:17ALAJam Miller 20 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)14–30
- Q4 4:08ALAConor Talty 30 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q3 1:17ALAConor Talty 30 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 9:15ALAConor Talty 38 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 0:17ALAGermie Bernard 27 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:33VANSedrick Alexander 4 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q2 9:22ALARyan Williams 14 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:34VANSedrick Alexander 65 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1958, VAN Elo 1758 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -10.4 (76% to win) — 3.1 points clear of VAN's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 64–19–4 · 34% have been one-possession games
| VAN | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.4 (#8) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| +28 / +2 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 3.85 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →