| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| ALA | 0 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1958, VAN Elo 1758) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -10.4 (78% to win) — 3.1 points of value on VAN versus the market line of -13.5.
ALA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Vanderbilt 14, Alabama 30.
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Sedrick Alexander run for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Keon Sabb return for 12 yds to the ALA 19
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the ALA 8 Diego Pavia fumbled, forced by Justin Jefferson, recovered by ALA Tim Keenan III
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