| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
| KENN | 14 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 33 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENN Elo 1374, UTEP Elo 1234) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -8 (72% to win) — 4.0 points of value on UTEP versus the market line of -12.
KENN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 20, Kennesaw State 33.
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Caleb Offord 23 Yd Fumble Return (Britton Williams Kick)
End of 2nd quarter.
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Williams II pass intercepted by #10 J.Wilson at UTEP42 QB hurried by #18 J.Content #10 J.Wilson return 0 yards to the UTEP42 (#5 D.Williams II)
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