UTEP vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsKENN
- Q4 1:10KENNChase Belcher 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)20–33
- Q4 11:32KENNBritton Williams 30 Yd Field Goal 20–26
- Q3 2:24KENNAmari Odom 5 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)20–23
- Q3 3:48UTEPTanner Cragun 26 Yd Field Goal 20–16
- Q3 10:45UTEPKenny Odom 27 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)17–16
- Q2 1:31KENNTeam Safety 10–16
- Q2 3:21UTEPTanner Cragun 38 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 11:16UTEPJosh Schuchts 41 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:43KENNGabriel Benyard 57 Yd Punt Return (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:16KENNCaleb Offord 23 Yd Fumble Return (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassSkyler Locklear 14/29, 160 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSkyler Locklear 23 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecKenny Odom 6 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAmari Odom 6/10, 86 YDS
- RushChase Belcher 24 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Rogers 1 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:16KENN +13%
Caleb Offord 23 Yd Fumble Return (Britton Williams Kick)
- Q1 6:43KENN +9%
#42 N.Botsford punt 39 yards to the KSU43 #1 G.Benyard return 57 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:40KENN +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete deep left to #15 J.Rogers caught at UTEP16, for 66 yards to the UTEP07 (#22 L.Russell), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Kennesaw State?
UTEP 20, Kennesaw State 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
| UTEP | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 295 | Total yards | 304 |
| 160 | Passing yards | 154 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 2-16 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/30 | Comp/Att | 14/32 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-75 | Penalties | 4-49 |
| 30:57 | Possession | 29:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:39 KENN punt on 4th & 10 at UTEP 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10KENNChase Belcher 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)20–33
- Q4 11:32KENNBritton Williams 30 Yd Field Goal 20–26
- Q3 2:24KENNAmari Odom 5 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)20–23
- Q3 3:48UTEPTanner Cragun 26 Yd Field Goal 20–16
- Q3 10:45UTEPKenny Odom 27 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)17–16
- Q2 1:31KENNTeam Safety 10–16
- Q2 3:21UTEPTanner Cragun 38 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 11:16UTEPJosh Schuchts 41 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:43KENNGabriel Benyard 57 Yd Punt Return (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:16KENNCaleb Offord 23 Yd Fumble Return (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1374, UTEP Elo 1234 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN -8 (71% to win) — 4.0 points clear of UTEP's market line of -12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#76) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 2.14 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →