USC vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsTCU
- OT 0:00TCUJeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals 27–30
- OT 0:00USCRyon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 0:02TCUKyle Lemmermann 27 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 4:24TCUJeremy Payne 5 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)24–21
- Q4 9:37USCRyon Sayeri 41 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 0:49USCJaden Richardson 21 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Taniela Tupou for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q2 0:18USCRyon Sayeri 28 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 4:58TCUKen Seals 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:57USCKing Miller 2 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–7
- Q2 13:36TCUJon Denman 5 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:06USCRyon Sayeri 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = USC ahead, below = TCU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJayden Maiava 18/30, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKing Miller 25 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTanook Hines 6 REC, 163 YDS
- PassKen Seals 29/40, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeremy Payne 13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEric McAlister 8 REC, 69 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. TCU?
USC 27, TCU 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USC | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 375 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 117 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 29/40 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 10-81 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
- OT 0:00TCUJeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals 27–30
- OT 0:00USCRyon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 0:02TCUKyle Lemmermann 27 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 4:24TCUJeremy Payne 5 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)24–21
- Q4 9:37USCRyon Sayeri 41 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 0:49USCJaden Richardson 21 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Taniela Tupou for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q2 0:18USCRyon Sayeri 28 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 4:58TCUKen Seals 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)10–14
- Q2 9:57USCKing Miller 2 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–7
- Q2 13:36TCUJon Denman 5 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:06USCRyon Sayeri 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1652, USC Elo 1889 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TCU +9.5 (27% to win) — 5.0 points clear of USC's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USC | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (#10) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#31) |
| +18 / -4 | offense / defense | +6 / -7 |
| 3.53 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →