| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| TCU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TCU Elo 1652, USC Elo 1889) on a neutral field. That projects TCU +9.5 (24% to win) — 5.0 points of value on USC versus the market line of +4.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = USC ahead, below = TCU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
USC up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 27, TCU 30.
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jeremy Payne 35 Yd pass from Ken Seals
(11:16) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #7 C.Canada at TCU00, Touchback
(13:18) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at TCU46, for 35 yards to the TCU39 (#26 V.Glover), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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