USC
5-1·Big Ten· Elo 1904
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 10 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 24 |
| ND | 7 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2196, USC Elo 1904) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -14.1 (85% to win) — 3.6 points of value on ND versus the market line of -10.5.
ND up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 24, Notre Dame 34.
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
CJ Carr pass intercepted Braylan Shelby return for 18 yds to the USC 22
Jeremiyah Love run for 63 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down
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