USC vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsND
- Q4 7:16NDCJ Carr 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)24–34
- Q3 4:17NDJadarian Price 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Burnette PAT failed)24–27
- Q3 4:32USCJa'Kobi Lane 59 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ja'Kobi Lane Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q3 6:19USCRyon Sayeri 43 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 8:04NDWill Pauling 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)13–21
- Q2 1:42USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 14:36NDJadarian Price 16 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)10–14
- Q1 8:04USCRyon Sayeri 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:11NDJeremiyah Love 12 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:09USCLake McRee 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJayden Maiava 22/42, 328 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushKing Miller 18 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecJa'Kobi Lane 6 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCJ Carr 16/26, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeremiyah Love 24 CAR, 228 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Faison 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:32USC +30%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 4:17ND +24%
R. Sayeri kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (N. Burnette PAT MISSED)
- Q2 14:36ND +15%
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q3 8:04ND +15%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q1 10:11ND +15%
Jeremiyah Love run for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q1 11:09USC +15%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Notre Dame?
USC 24, Notre Dame 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| USC | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 442 |
| 328 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 306 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/42 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 8-96 |
| 27:02 | Possession | 32:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:41 ND punt on 4th & 2 at ND 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:16NDCJ Carr 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)24–34
- Q3 4:17NDJadarian Price 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Burnette PAT failed)24–27
- Q3 4:32USCJa'Kobi Lane 59 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ja'Kobi Lane Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q3 6:19USCRyon Sayeri 43 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 8:04NDWill Pauling 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)13–21
- Q2 1:42USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 14:36NDJadarian Price 16 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)10–14
- Q1 8:04USCRyon Sayeri 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:11NDJeremiyah Love 12 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:09USCLake McRee 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2196, USC Elo 1904 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -14.1 (83% to win) — 3.6 points clear of ND's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 53–38–5 · Notre Dame has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| USC | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (#10) | CORE overall | +38.3 (#2) |
| +18 / -4 | offense / defense | +20 / -18 |
| 3.53 | points / drive | 3.84 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 1.28 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →