FAU StadiumClosing line: CONN +-6 · FAU covered
Sat, Nov 22, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 48 |
| FAU | 3 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1249, CONN Elo 1568) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +10.4 (22% to win) — 4.4 points of value on CONN versus the market line of +6.
CONN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45.
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dominique Henry 90 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)
Easton Messer 33 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)
Shamar Porter 56 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
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