UConn vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsFAU
- Q4 0:26CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)48–45
- Q4 2:11FAUCaden Veltkamp 11 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)41–45
- Q4 7:13FAUEaston Messer 33 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)41–38
- Q4 10:11CONNMel Brown 44 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)41–31
- Q3 2:09CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)34–31
- Q3 6:48FAUDominique Henry 90 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)27–31
- Q3 12:01FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 11 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)27–24
- Q2 1:09CONNChris Freeman 25 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q2 5:22FAUCaden Veltkamp 17 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)24–17
- Q2 14:18FAUEaston Messer 39 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)24–10
- Q1 1:21CONNAlex Honig 32 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)24–3
- Q1 3:38CONNShamar Porter 56 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)17–3
- Q1 6:21CONNJohn Neider 24 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)10–3
- Q1 8:47FAUGarrison Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:08CONNChris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJoe Fagnano 33/46, 446 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCam Edwards 16 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 8 REC, 125 YDS
- PassCaden Veltkamp 42/55, 494 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaden Shields-Dutton 14 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDominique Henry 7 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:26CONN +95%
Cam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)
- Q4 2:11FAU +82%
Caden Veltkamp 11 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)
- Q4 7:13FAU +26%
Easton Messer 33 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)
- Q1 14:03FAU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush right for 3 yards gain to the FAU32 (#9 N.Barber)
- Q4 1:49CONN +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Fagnano pass complete short right to #1 S.Bell caught at Con45, for 7 yards to the Con48 (#27 T.Reid)
- Q4 10:11CONN +16%
Mel Brown 44 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Florida Atlantic?
UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| CONN | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 600 | Total yards | 687 |
| 446 | Passing yards | 494 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 193 |
| 31 | First downs | 37 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 33/46 | Comp/Att | 42/55 |
| 9.7 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-105 | Penalties | 7-63 |
| 32:28 | Possession | 27:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:13 FAU go for it on 4th & 11 at CONN 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.64 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)48–45
- Q4 2:11FAUCaden Veltkamp 11 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)41–45
- Q4 7:13FAUEaston Messer 33 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)41–38
- Q4 10:11CONNMel Brown 44 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)41–31
- Q3 2:09CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)34–31
- Q3 6:48FAUDominique Henry 90 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)27–31
- Q3 12:01FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 11 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)27–24
- Q2 1:09CONNChris Freeman 25 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q2 5:22FAUCaden Veltkamp 17 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)24–17
- Q2 14:18FAUEaston Messer 39 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)24–10
- Q1 1:21CONNAlex Honig 32 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)24–3
- Q1 3:38CONNShamar Porter 56 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)17–3
- Q1 6:21CONNJohn Neider 24 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)10–3
- Q1 8:47FAUGarrison Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:08CONNChris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1249, CONN Elo 1568 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU +10.4 (26% to win) — 4.4 points clear of CONN's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CONN | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#103) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →