UConn vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsBUF
- Q4 0:11CONNChris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 1:04BUFAl-Jay Henderson 5 Yd pass from Gunnar Gray (Jack Howes Kick)17–17
- Q3 1:31CONNChris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 5:15BUFJack Howes 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 11:16CONNCam Edwards 8 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)14–7
- Q2 6:33BUFLamar Sperling 63 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:37CONNSkyler Bell 25 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJoe Fagnano 19/31, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJoe Fagnano 6 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecSkyler Bell 6 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunnar Gray 17/29, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLamar Sperling 9 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVictor Snow 7 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:11CONN +36%
Chris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 1:04BUF +25%
G. Gray pass to A. Henderson for 5 yds for a TD (J. Howes KICK) (J. Howes KICK)
- Q3 11:16CONN +24%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
- Q2 6:33BUF +21%
Lamar Sperling run for 63 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q3 1:31CONN +21%
Chris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 8:37CONN +21%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) (Chris Freeman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Buffalo?
UConn 20, Buffalo 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CONN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 329 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 125 |
| 165 | Rushing yards | 204 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 19/32 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 26:10 | Possession | 33:50 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:55 CONN punt on 4th & 11 at BUF 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:11CONNChris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 1:04BUFAl-Jay Henderson 5 Yd pass from Gunnar Gray (Jack Howes Kick)17–17
- Q3 1:31CONNChris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 5:15BUFJack Howes 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 11:16CONNCam Edwards 8 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)14–7
- Q2 6:33BUFLamar Sperling 63 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:37CONNSkyler Bell 25 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1383, CONN Elo 1436 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -0.3 (52% to win) — 3.3 points clear of BUF's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUConn leads 12–2 · UConn has won 2 straight · 21% have been one-possession games
| CONN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#89) | CORE overall | -19.7 (#124) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | -15 / +5 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →