| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| BUF | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1383, CONN Elo 1436) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF -0.3 (51% to win) — 3.3 points of value on BUF versus the market line of +3.
CONN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UConn 20, Buffalo 17.
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BUF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Lamar Sperling run for 63 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
Joe Fagnano run for 38 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST down
Malin White run for 15 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST down
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