| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 34 |
| UTAH | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTAH Elo 1668, TTU Elo 1690) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -1.5 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TTU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas Tech 34, Utah 10.
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UTAH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 73 yds to the UTAH 12 for a 1ST down
Behren Morton pass intercepted Jackson Bennee return for no gain to the UTAH 20
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 33 yds to the UTAH 27 for a 1ST down
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