| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 15 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 35 |
| HOU | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1490, TTU Elo 1751) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU +8 (28% to win) — 4.5 points of value on HOU versus the market line of +12.5.
TTU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas Tech 35, Houston 11.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cameron Dickey 69 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Amare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 33 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST down
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