Texas Tech vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 11:34TTUJ'Koby Williams 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)35–11
- Q3 7:44TTUUpton Bellenfant 29 Yd Field Goal 28–11
- Q2 1:27HOUAmare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)25–11
- Q2 1:53TTUStone Harrington 26 Yd Field Goal 25–3
- Q2 11:11TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)22–3
- Q1 0:56TTUCameron Dickey 69 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–3
- Q1 2:16HOUEthan Sanchez 24 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 4:34TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 9:38TTUUpton Bellenfant 33 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:31TTUStone Harrington 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBehren Morton 28/40, 345 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJ'Koby Williams 20 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaleb Douglas 7 REC, 114 YDS
- PassZeon Chriss-Gremillion 5/13, 93 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushZeon Chriss-Gremillion 7 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 2 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:27HOU +5%
Amare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Houston?
Texas Tech 35, Houston 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| TTU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 552 | Total yards | 267 |
| 345 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 27 | First downs | 12 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 28/40 | Comp/Att | 10/25 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 37:58 | Possession | 22:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:39 HOU go for it on 4th & 8 at TTU 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:34TTUJ'Koby Williams 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)35–11
- Q3 7:44TTUUpton Bellenfant 29 Yd Field Goal 28–11
- Q2 1:27HOUAmare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)25–11
- Q2 1:53TTUStone Harrington 26 Yd Field Goal 25–3
- Q2 11:11TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)22–3
- Q1 0:56TTUCameron Dickey 69 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–3
- Q1 2:16HOUEthan Sanchez 24 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 4:34TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 9:38TTUUpton Bellenfant 33 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:31TTUStone Harrington 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1490, TTU Elo 1751 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU +8 (31% to win) — 4.5 points clear of HOU's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHouston leads 18–17–1 · Texas Tech has won 7 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| TTU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +33.7 (#5) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| +4 / -30 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 0.95 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →