| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TA&M | 7 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
| MIZ | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1779, TA&M Elo 1859) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +0.8 (48% to win) — 6.2 points of value on MIZ versus the market line of +7.
TA&M up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas A&M 38, Missouri 17.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 R.Owens II rush middle for 57 yards gain to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:40, 1ST DOWN #47 R.Bond kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #48 J.Graham)
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 K.Concepcion caught at Mizzou50, for 48 yards to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21, 1ST DOWN #47 R.Bond kick attempt good (H: #37 T.White, LS: #48 J.Graham)
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 45 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:45, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
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