Texas A&M vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TA&MTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 2:36TA&MRueben Owens II 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)38–17
- Q4 6:45MIZAhmad Hardy 45 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)31–17
- Q4 7:40TA&MRueben Owens II 57 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)31–10
- Q4 11:17MIZOliver Robbins 49 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 3:10TA&MRandy Bond 32 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 6:50MIZJamal Roberts 4 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)21–7
- Q3 11:21TA&MKC Concepcion 48 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:20TA&MEJ Smith 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:16TA&MAshton Bethel-Roman 4 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassMarcel Reed 20/29, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRueben Owens II 13 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKC Concepcion 4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatt Zollers 7/22, 77 YDS
- RushJamal Roberts 17 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Olugbode 3 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:16TA&M +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short left to #3 A.Bethel-Roman caught at Mizzou00, for 4 yards to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:20TA&M +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 6:50MIZ +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TAMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane".…
- Q3 11:21TA&M +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass complete short right to #7 K.Concepcion caught at Mizzou50, for 48 yards to the Mizzou00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas A&M vs. Missouri?
Texas A&M 38, Missouri 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| TA&M | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 464 | Total yards | 284 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 77 |
| 243 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 21 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 7/22 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 35:46 | Possession | 24:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:57 MIZ punt on 4th & 1 at MIZ 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:36TA&MRueben Owens II 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)38–17
- Q4 6:45MIZAhmad Hardy 45 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)31–17
- Q4 7:40TA&MRueben Owens II 57 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)31–10
- Q4 11:17MIZOliver Robbins 49 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 3:10TA&MRandy Bond 32 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 6:50MIZJamal Roberts 4 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)21–7
- Q3 11:21TA&MKC Concepcion 48 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:20TA&MEJ Smith 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:16TA&MAshton Bethel-Roman 4 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1779, TA&M Elo 1859 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +0.8 (49% to win) — 6.2 points clear of MIZ's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas A&M leads 11–7 · Texas A&M has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| TA&M | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| +12 / -11 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →