Tennessee vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsALA
- Q4 5:49ALADaniel Hill 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)20–37
- Q4 10:51TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)20–30
- Q3 0:25ALARico Scott 11 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)13–30
- Q3 11:18TENNDeSean Bishop 44 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q2 0:00ALAZabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–23
- Q2 4:05ALAJam Miller 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)7–16
- Q2 7:27ALATeam Safety 7–9
- Q2 9:46TENNBraylon Staley 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:51ALAIsaiah Horton 2 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJoey Aguilar 28/44, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeSean Bishop 14 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBraylon Staley 10 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTy Simpson 19/29, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGermie Bernard 4 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecRyan Coleman-Williams 5 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:36TENN +6%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Wendell Moe Jr.) to the TENN 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Alabama?
Tennessee 20, Alabama 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| TENN | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 373 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 27 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/44 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-66 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 28:56 | Possession | 31:04 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:53 TENN punt on 4th & 1 at TENN 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:49ALADaniel Hill 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)20–37
- Q4 10:51TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)20–30
- Q3 0:25ALARico Scott 11 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)13–30
- Q3 11:18TENNDeSean Bishop 44 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q2 0:00ALAZabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–23
- Q2 4:05ALAJam Miller 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)7–16
- Q2 7:27ALATeam Safety 7–9
- Q2 9:46TENNBraylon Staley 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:51ALAIsaiah Horton 2 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1967, TENN Elo 1825 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -8.1 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 61–39–7 · 41% have been one-possession games
| TENN | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#26) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| +16 / +1 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →