| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| ALA | 7 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1967, TENN Elo 1825) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -8.1 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ALA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tennessee 20, Alabama 37.
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)
DeSean Bishop run for 44 yds for a TD (Joey Aguilar intercepted)
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
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