TCU vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsASU
- Q4 1:14ASUJesus Gomez 23 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 1:50ASUJordyn Tyson 4 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–24
- Q3 4:02TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)24–17
- Q3 7:00ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 1:56ASUSam Leavitt 8 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:51ASUJordyn Tyson 57 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:24TCUNate McCashland 27 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 10:22TCUJeremy Payne 7 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:11TCUTrent Battle 13 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ASU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.8 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassJosh Hoover 20/32, 242 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTrent Battle 9 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoseph Manjack IV 6 REC, 83 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 27/39, 291 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRaleek Brown 21 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecJordyn Tyson 8 REC, 126 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:50TCU +38%
Matt McKenzie punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 26
- Q4 3:17ASU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete short middle to McClain,Malik thrown to TCU12 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Canada,Channing) 12 yards from TCU24 to TCU1…
- Q4 1:42ASU +25%
TCU Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Austin Jordan) to the TCU 5 for a 1ST down
- Q4 1:50TCU +25%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
- Q4 0:27ASU +21%
S. Leavitt takes a knee
- Q4 12:16ASU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass complete short left to Tyson,Jordyn caught at TCU20, for 5 yards to the TCU17 (Oyewale,Paul) PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Eusebio,…
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Arizona State?
TCU 24, Arizona State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
| TCU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 269 | Total yards | 498 |
| 259 | Passing yards | 291 |
| 10 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 21/33 | Comp/Att | 27/39 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 0.4 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 7-56 |
| 24:13 | Possession | 35:47 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:14ASUJesus Gomez 23 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 1:50ASUJordyn Tyson 4 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–24
- Q3 4:02TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)24–17
- Q3 7:00ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 1:56ASUSam Leavitt 8 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:51ASUJordyn Tyson 57 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–7
- Q2 6:24TCUNate McCashland 27 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 10:22TCUJeremy Payne 7 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:11TCUTrent Battle 13 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1721, TCU Elo 1733 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -1.9 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#121 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #49 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| TCU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →