| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| ASU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1721, TCU Elo 1733) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -1.9 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TCU ahead, below = ASU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TCU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 24, Arizona State 27.
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 57 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 39 yds to the ASU 7 for a 1ST down
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Adrian Wilson return for 5 yds to the ASU 8
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