Syracuse vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsTENN
- Q4 3:57TENNMiles Kitselman 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)26–45
- Q4 11:54SYRYasin Willis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–38
- Q3 7:33SYRYasin Willis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 12:22TENNStar Thomas 7 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)14–38
- Q2 0:21TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–31
- Q2 1:55SYRJohntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:14TENNBraylon Staley 73 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:40SYRYasin Willis 2 Yd Run (Tripp Woody Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:56TENNColton Hood 22 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:02TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:46TENNMax Gilbert 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassSteve Angeli 23/40, 274 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushYasin Willis 23 CAR, 91 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJohntay Cook II 6 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoey Aguilar 16/28, 247 YDS, 3 TD
- RushStar Thomas 12 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecBraylon Staley 4 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:02TENN +10%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
- Q2 1:55SYR +7%
Johntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)
- Q2 11:40SYR +6%
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)
- Q2 11:14TENN +6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
- Q2 0:21TENN +6%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
- Q1 12:46TENN +5%
Max Gilbert 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Tennessee?
Syracuse 26, Tennessee 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| SYR | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | Total yards | 493 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 246 |
| 24 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/40 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 34:31 | Possession | 25:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:52 SYR punt on 4th & 16 at TENN 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:57TENNMiles Kitselman 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)26–45
- Q4 11:54SYRYasin Willis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–38
- Q3 7:33SYRYasin Willis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 12:22TENNStar Thomas 7 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)14–38
- Q2 0:21TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–31
- Q2 1:55SYRJohntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:14TENNBraylon Staley 73 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:40SYRYasin Willis 2 Yd Run (Tripp Woody Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:56TENNColton Hood 22 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:02TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:46TENNMax Gilbert 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1776, SYR Elo 1499 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TENN -11.1 (78% to win) — 2.4 points clear of SYR's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SYR | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.9 (#127) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| -14 / +7 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 2.89 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →