| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 0 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 26 |
| TENN | 17 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1776, SYR Elo 1499) on a neutral field. That projects TENN -11.1 (79% to win) — 2.4 points of value on SYR versus the market line of -13.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SYR ahead, below = TENN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TENN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Syracuse 26, Tennessee 45.
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
Steve Angeli pass incomplete
DeSean Bishop run for 47 yds to the SYR 28 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
