Maverik StadiumConference gameClosing line: USU -3 · USU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 25 |
| USU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 30 |
Team stats
SJSUthis game · better side highlightedUSU
534
Total yards
461340
Passing yards
331194
Rushing yards
13023
First downs
199-17 · 53%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USU 1370
SJSU 1417
Projected spread
USU -0.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
USU
52% to win
Market spread
USU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
SJSU
2.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
USU · market 60%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1370, SJSU Elo 1417) plus home-field advantage. That projects USU -0.5 (52% to win) — 2.5 points of value on SJSU versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USU (top)SJSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USU.
- USU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge USU.
Drive-by-drive
SJSU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 6/11 scoring drives
SJSUFG12 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q1
USUTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SJSUDOWNS10 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
USU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Utah State?
San José State 25, Utah State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.