Rutgers vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RUTGTeam statsILL
- Q4 5:47RUTGKJ Duff 3 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)13–35
- Q3 3:25ILLCollin Dixon 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–35
- Q3 10:40ILLHudson Clement 20 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–28
- Q2 0:29ILLHank Beatty 1 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–21
- Q2 2:04ILLLuke Altmyer 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)6–14
- Q2 5:45RUTGJai Patel 40 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:41RUTGJai Patel 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 4:04ILLKaden Feagin 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RUTG did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 25/45, 253 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJa'shon Benjamin 8 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecKJ Duff 9 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Altmyer 19/31, 235 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushLuke Altmyer 7 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHudson Clement 5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:04ILL +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 3 yards gain to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:04ILL +16%
#9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #3 K.Feagin caught at RUT04, for 7 yards to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:45RUTG +12%
#44 J.Patel field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q2 0:29ILL +10%
#9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at RUT00, for 1 yard to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:41RUTG +7%
#44 J.Patel field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rutgers vs. Illinois?
Rutgers 13, Illinois 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| RUTG | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Total yards | 445 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 19 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 25/45 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 27:25 | Possession | 32:35 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:47RUTGKJ Duff 3 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)13–35
- Q3 3:25ILLCollin Dixon 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–35
- Q3 10:40ILLHudson Clement 20 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–28
- Q2 0:29ILLHank Beatty 1 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)6–21
- Q2 2:04ILLLuke Altmyer 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)6–14
- Q2 5:45RUTGJai Patel 40 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:41RUTGJai Patel 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 4:04ILLKaden Feagin 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1560, RUTG Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -6.3 (67% to win) — 6.7 points clear of RUTG's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIllinois leads 7–3 · Illinois has won 2 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| RUTG | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 (#79) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#36) |
| +10 / +14 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 3.60 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →