| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| ILL | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1560, RUTG Elo 1462) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -6.3 (68% to win) — 6.7 points of value on RUTG versus the market line of -13.
ILL up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rutgers 13, Illinois 35.
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 4th quarter.
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 1st quarter.
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