Portland State vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Portland State

00

BYU

▸0069

Final

LaVell Edwards Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PORT	0	0	0	0	0
BYU	14	35	6	14	69

PORTTeam statsBYU

51Total yards606

56Pass138

-5Rush468

3First downs28

1-133rd down6-10

1Turnovers1

25:38Possession34:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55BYUCharles Miska 5 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–69
• Q4 14:51BYUDominique McKenzie 41 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–62
• Q3 2:09BYUWill Ferrin 56 Yd Field Goal 0–55
• Q3 6:33BYUWill Ferrin 25 Yd Field Goal 0–52
• Q2 0:49BYUBear Bachmeier 12 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–49
• Q2 3:35BYUCarsen Ryan 22 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–42
• Q2 6:15BYUBear Bachmeier 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–35
• Q2 6:53BYUCody Hagen 57 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–28
• Q2 9:52BYUNoah Moeaki 5 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–21
• Q1 0:00BYUChase Roberts 4 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
• Q1 3:58BYUJack Kelly 54 Yd Return of Missed Field Goal (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

BYU −44

Against the number

BYU covered

line BYU −44

What the numbers say

• PORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BYU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PORT aheadBYU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = PORT ahead, below = BYU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

BYU −44

Closing total

62.0

Model line

—

Actual result

PORT 0 – 69 BYU

Leaders

Portland State

• PassCJ Jordan 8/14, 58 YDS
• RushJacques Badolato-Birdsell 12 CAR, 28 YDS
• RecKristian Ingman 1 REC, 20 YDS

BYU

• PassBear Bachmeier 7/11, 97 YDS, 3 TD
• RushLJ Martin 8 CAR, 131 YDS
• RecCarsen Ryan 2 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

113

Points / snap

0.61

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BYU up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 47 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

BYU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCentral Michigan vs Central Connecticut65-10WRice vs Texas Southern69-7WSouthern Illinois vs Murray State69-0WNorth Carolina Central vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg104-0WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3

Fourth downs

15 calls

PORT gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.PORT 10/11 · BYU 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Portland State vs. BYU?

Portland State 0, BYU 69.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PORT

BYU

13%

Success rate

57%

-0.25

EPA / pass

0.64

-0.35

EPA / rush

0.68

16%

Early-down success

56%

22%

Pass success

61%

5%

Rush success

56%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

64%

Stuffed rush rate

8%

51%

Pass rate

27%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

PORT

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

45 scrimmage snaps

BYU

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PORT		BYU
51	Total yards	606
56	Passing yards	138
-5	Rushing yards	468
3	First downs	28
1-13	3rd down	6-10
0-0	4th down	1-1
10/20	Comp/Att	12/18
2.8	Yards per pass	7.7
-0.2	Yards per rush	9.8
1	Turnovers	1
4-20	Penalties	5-55
25:38	Possession	34:22

Fourth downs

15 calls

PORT

10/11 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

BYU

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 11:59 PORT punt on 4th & 1 at BYU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PORT 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BYU 10/11 scoring drives

PORTPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1

BYUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 11Q1

PORTPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q1

PORTTD4 pl, -2 yds· opp 37Q1

PORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

BYUTD4 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1

PORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

BYUTD7 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2

PORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 17Q2

BYUTD4 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2

PORTFUM1 pl, -14 yds· own 20Q2

BYUTD2 pl, 6 yds· opp 6Q2

PORTPUNT3 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2

BYUTD4 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2

PORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

BYUTD4 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

PORTEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

BYUFG15 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q3

PORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

BYUFG6 pl, 12 yds· midfieldQ3

PORTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

BYUTD2 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3

PORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

BYUTD15 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4

PORTEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55BYUCharles Miska 5 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–69
• Q4 14:51BYUDominique McKenzie 41 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–62
• Q3 2:09BYUWill Ferrin 56 Yd Field Goal 0–55
• Q3 6:33BYUWill Ferrin 25 Yd Field Goal 0–52
• Q2 0:49BYUBear Bachmeier 12 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–49
• Q2 3:35BYUCarsen Ryan 22 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–42
• Q2 6:15BYUBear Bachmeier 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–35
• Q2 6:53BYUCody Hagen 57 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–28
• Q2 9:52BYUNoah Moeaki 5 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–21
• Q1 0:00BYUChase Roberts 4 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
• Q1 3:58BYUJack Kelly 54 Yd Return of Missed Field Goal (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →