| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 3 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| WASH | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1802, ORE Elo 2086) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH +9 (25% to win) — 2.5 points of value on ORE versus the market line of +6.5.
ORE up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 26, Washington 14.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:05) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at WASH47, for 64 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:55, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
(02:52) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass intercepted by #22 J.Canady at ORE00, Touchback
(02:19) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 8 yards loss to the WASH12 (#5 Z.Durfee), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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