Oregon vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsWASH
- Q4 7:55OREMalik Benson 64 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)26–14
- Q4 8:54WASHDenzel Boston 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)19–14
- Q3 2:34OREAtticus Sappington 51 Yd Field Goal 19–7
- Q3 9:07OREAtticus Sappington 37 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 0:10WASHDenzel Boston 3 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)13–7
- Q2 3:18OREAtticus Sappington 32 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:54OREDante Moore 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:12OREAtticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 20/29, 286 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNoah Whittington 17 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecMalik Benson 5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 15/30, 129 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushAdam Mohammed 14 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecDezmen Roebuck 2 REC, 27 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:54WASH +18%
Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #12 D.Boston caught at ORE00, for 13 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 10:54ORE +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:10WASH +13%
Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at ORE00, for 3 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:45ORE +11%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #18 K.Sadiq thrown to WASH49
- Q4 7:55ORE +10%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at WASH47, for 64 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 11:12ORE +6%
#36 A.Sappington field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Washington?
Oregon 26, Washington 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 283 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 15/30 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-58 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 34:58 | Possession | 25:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:54 WASH go for it on 4th & 8 at ORE 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.79 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:55OREMalik Benson 64 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)26–14
- Q4 8:54WASHDenzel Boston 13 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)19–14
- Q3 2:34OREAtticus Sappington 51 Yd Field Goal 19–7
- Q3 9:07OREAtticus Sappington 37 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 0:10WASHDenzel Boston 3 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)13–7
- Q2 3:18OREAtticus Sappington 32 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:54OREDante Moore 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:12OREAtticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1802, ORE Elo 2086 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH +9 (29% to win) — 2.5 points clear of ORE's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington leads 56–46–4 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| ORE | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | +21.7 (#11) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | +13 / -9 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →