| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| KU | 3 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1563, OKST Elo 1042) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU -23.2 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
KU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma State 21, Kansas 38.
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(04:49) Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete deep left to #2 T.Davis caught at KU41, for 29 yards to the KU41 (#0 A.Alexander), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KU Pass Interference declined
(10:44) Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #7 S.Rigby caught at KU00, for 12 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40 #19 L.Ward kick attempt good (H: #90 W.Pahl, LS: #57 A.Davenport)
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