Oklahoma State vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsKU
- Q4 1:19OKSTSesi Vailahi 2 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)21–38
- Q4 6:04KULeshon Williams 5 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–38
- Q4 13:49KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–31
- Q3 1:55OKSTGavin Freeman 10 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)14–24
- Q3 6:55KUBryson Canty 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:19KUBoden Groen 3 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:23KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:56KULaith Marjan 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:40OKSTShamar Rigby 12 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassZane Flores 22/28, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 15 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecGavin Freeman 7 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJalon Daniels 13/19, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLeshon Williams 14 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLeyton Cure 2 REC, 32 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:23KU +13%
Shotgun #9 D.Hishaw Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:40OKST +9%
Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #7 S.Rigby caught at KU00, for 12 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 10:19KU +7%
Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass complete short middle to #88 B.Groen caught at OSU00, for 3 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Kansas?
Oklahoma State 21, Kansas 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
| OKST | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 342 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 110 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 24/31 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 2-30 |
| 29:22 | Possession | 30:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 OKST field goal on 4th & 2 at KU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:19OKSTSesi Vailahi 2 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)21–38
- Q4 6:04KULeshon Williams 5 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–38
- Q4 13:49KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–31
- Q3 1:55OKSTGavin Freeman 10 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)14–24
- Q3 6:55KUBryson Canty 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:19KUBoden Groen 3 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:23KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:56KULaith Marjan 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:40OKSTShamar Rigby 12 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1563, OKST Elo 1042 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU -23.2 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 41–31–3 · 37% have been one-possession games
| OKST | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#130) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#57) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | +10 / +6 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →