Ohio vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsWMU
- Q4 13:43WMUJalen Buckley 3 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)13–17
- Q4 14:55OHIOSieh Bangura 3 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)13–10
- Q3 10:09WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:18OHIOParker Navarro 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:19WMUPalmer Domschke 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassParker Navarro 8/19, 70 YDS, 1 INT
- RushParker Navarro 18 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJake Bruno 2 REC, 25 YDS
- PassBroc Lowry 9/14, 126 YDS
- RushBroc Lowry 18 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTalique Williams 1 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:43WMU +35%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:45WMU +35%
#20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 37 yards NO GOOD
- Q4 14:55OHIO +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 10:09WMU +26%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 1 yard gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:21OHIO +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WMU20 (#22 J.Thomeson)
- Q4 1:22WMU +18%
Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at OHI11 for loss of 1 yard
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Western Michigan?
Ohio 13, Western Michigan 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 287 | Total yards | 336 |
| 70 | Passing yards | 126 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 0-8 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 8/19 | Comp/Att | 9/14 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 28:46 | Possession | 31:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:29 OHIO punt on 4th & 5 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:43WMUJalen Buckley 3 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)13–17
- Q4 14:55OHIOSieh Bangura 3 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)13–10
- Q3 10:09WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:18OHIOParker Navarro 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:19WMUPalmer Domschke 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1368, OHIO Elo 1595 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU +6.7 (34% to win) — 8.2 points clear of OHIO's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Michigan leads 31–18 · 39% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →