Waldo StadiumConference gameClosing line: WMU -1.5 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| WMU | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Team stats
OHIOthis game · better side highlightedWMU
287
Total yards
33670
Passing yards
126217
Rushing yards
21015
First downs
163-11 · 27%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1368
OHIO 1595
Projected spread
WMU +6.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
OHIO
69% to win
Market spread
WMU -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
OHIO
8.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
31%
WMU · market 50%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1368, OHIO Elo 1595) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU +6.7 (31% to win) — 8.2 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of -1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)OHIO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- OHIO pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge OHIO.
- OHIO rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge OHIO.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. OHIO pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge OHIO.
Drive-by-drive
OHIO 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 3/10 scoring drives
OHIOINT5 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q1
WMUFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 33Q1
OHIOPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
WMU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Western Michigan?
Ohio 13, Western Michigan 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had OHIO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.