| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| ILL | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1585, OSU Elo 2078) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL +17.3 (10% to win) — 2.3 points of value on OSU versus the market line of +15.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = OSU ahead, below = ILL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
OSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio State 34, Illinois 16.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST down
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 32 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST down
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