Ohio State vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsILL
- Q4 4:25ILLCollin Dixon 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–16
- Q4 13:25OSUJeremiah Smith 2 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)34–10
- Q3 2:08OSUCJ Donaldson 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)27–10
- Q3 10:06ILLAidan Laughery 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)20–10
- Q2 1:05ILLDavid Olano 24 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 3:48OSUBo Jackson 17 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)20–0
- Q2 6:43OSUJayden Fielding 31 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 3:40OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:35OSUJayden Fielding 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJulian Sayin 19/27, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBo Jackson 10 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecJeremiah Smith 5 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Altmyer 30/44, 248 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAidan Laughery 8 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCole Rusk 5 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:40OSU +7%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Illinois?
Ohio State 34, Illinois 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 272 | Total yards | 295 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 47 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 30/44 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-59 | Penalties | 4-19 |
| 33:11 | Possession | 26:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:35 OSU field goal on 4th & 2 at ILL 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25ILLCollin Dixon 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–16
- Q4 13:25OSUJeremiah Smith 2 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)34–10
- Q3 2:08OSUCJ Donaldson 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)27–10
- Q3 10:06ILLAidan Laughery 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)20–10
- Q2 1:05ILLDavid Olano 24 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 3:48OSUBo Jackson 17 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)20–0
- Q2 6:43OSUJayden Fielding 31 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 3:40OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–0
- Q1 9:35OSUJayden Fielding 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1585, OSU Elo 2078 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL +17.3 (14% to win) — 2.3 points clear of OSU's market line of +15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 70–30–4 · Ohio State has won 10 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| OSU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| +39.2 (#1) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#36) |
| +14 / -26 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 1.15 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →