Northern Iowa vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northern Iowa

07

Wyoming1-0

▸0031

Final

War Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	7	0	0	7
WYO	7	10	7	7	31

NORTTeam statsWYO

170Total yards379

111Pass190

59Rush189

13First downs25

5-163rd down4-10

2Turnovers1

30:41Possession29:19

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:12WYOSamuel Harris 18 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–31
• Q3 6:08WYOChris Durr Jr. 21 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–24
• Q2 0:00WYOErik Sandvik 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:13WYOJohn Michael Gyllenborg 6 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–14
• Q2 7:25NORTHarrison Bey-Buie 2 Yd Run (Max Bartachek Kick)7–7
• Q1 3:26WYOSam Scott 18 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

WYO −13.5

Against the number

WYO covered

line WYO −13.5

What the numbers say

• WYO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NORT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.8 vs 3rd & 5.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WYO 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

WYO (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WYO 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WYO −13.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 7 – 31 WYO

Leaders

Northern Iowa

• PassMatthew Schecklman 15/26, 107 YDS, 2 INT
• RushChristian Collins 4 CAR, 22 YDS
• RecTysen Kershaw 6 REC, 41 YDS

Wyoming

• PassKaden Anderson 17/23, 167 YDS, 2 TD
• RushTerron Kellman 7 CAR, 87 YDS
• RecJohn Michael Gyllenborg 5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

188

Points / snap

0.20

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WYO up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

WYO went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Fourth downs

23 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.NORT 14/14 · WYO 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. Wyoming?

Northern Iowa 7, Wyoming 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

WYO

36%

Success rate

56%

-0.14

EPA / pass

0.20

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.29

35%

Early-down success

61%

41%

Pass success

52%

30%

Rush success

61%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

54%

Pass rate

54%

5.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

12.8

NORT

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

95 scrimmage snaps

WYO

12.8 yards to go on 3rd down

93 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		WYO
170	Total yards	379
111	Passing yards	190
59	Rushing yards	189
13	First downs	25
5-16	3rd down	4-10
0-0	4th down	0-0
16/29	Comp/Att	20/26
3.8	Yards per pass	7.3
2.0	Yards per rush	5.1
2	Turnovers	1
9-80	Penalties	13-115
30:41	Possession	29:19

Fourth downs

23 calls

NORT

14/14 with the model

nothing given up

WYO

7/8 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WYO 3/10 scoring drives

WYOMISS9 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q1

NORTMISS12 pl, 48 yds· own 30Q1

WYOTD5 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

NORTPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

NORTTD11 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2

WYOPUNT3 pl, 13 yds· own 35Q1

WYOPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

NORTINT9 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 21Q3

WYOPUNT4 pl, -4 yds· own 29Q3

WYOFUM1 pl, -13 yds· own 28Q3

WYOTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

NORTINT2 pl, 2 yds· opp 15Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q4

WYOTD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 44Q3

WYOPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 40Q4

NORTEND3 pl, 16 yds· own 5Q4

WYOPUNT7 pl, 47 yds· own 2Q3

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:12WYOSamuel Harris 18 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–31
• Q3 6:08WYOChris Durr Jr. 21 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–24
• Q2 0:00WYOErik Sandvik 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:13WYOJohn Michael Gyllenborg 6 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–14
• Q2 7:25NORTHarrison Bey-Buie 2 Yd Run (Max Bartachek Kick)7–7
• Q1 3:26WYOSam Scott 18 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →