Mountain America StadiumClosing line: ASU -30 · NORT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| ASU | 14 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
Team stats
NORTthis game · better side highlightedASU
331
Total yards
460242
Passing yards
25789
Rushing yards
20320
First downs
212-15 · 13%
Third down
1-10 · 10%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ASU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ASU 100%
Drive-by-drive
NORT 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ASU 6/14 scoring drives
NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
ASUTD5 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 44Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ASU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
ASU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Arizona vs. Arizona State?
Northern Arizona 19, Arizona State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.