Northern Arizona vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northern Arizona

0019

Arizona State

▸0038

Final

Mountain America Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	6	7	6	19
ASU	14	3	14	7	38

NORTTeam statsASU

331Total yards458

242Pass257

89Rush201

20First downs21

2-153rd down2-10

1Turnovers1

31:34Possession28:26

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:20NORTKenveon Stone 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–38
• Q4 2:42ASUJordyn Tyson 16 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–38
• Q3 0:11ASUSam Leavitt 18 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–31
• Q3 8:14NORTNason Coleman 3 Yd pass from Ty Pennington (Samuel Hunsaker Kick)13–24
• Q3 12:24ASUSam Leavitt 52 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)6–24
• Q2 0:15NORTSamuel Hunsaker 46 Yd Field Goal 6–17
• Q2 1:55ASUJesus Gomez 36 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 14:14NORTSamuel Hunsaker 31 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 5:08ASUJordyn Tyson 19 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–14
• Q1 10:42ASURaleek Brown 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ASU −30

Against the number

NORT covered

line ASU −30

What the numbers say

• NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 36% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ASU 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ASU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ASU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ASU −30

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 19 – 38 ASU

Leaders

Northern Arizona

• PassTy Pennington 22/35, 204 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKenveon Stone 3 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKolbe Katsis 6 REC, 76 YDS

Arizona State

• PassSam Leavitt 25/39, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushSam Leavitt 7 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJordyn Tyson 12 REC, 141 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

22.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ASU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

ASU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17WKansas State vs Troy42-13WTCU vs Nicholls41-6WLafayette vs Columbia24-3WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Fourth downs

23 calls

NORT gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 13/14 · ASU 8/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Arizona vs. Arizona State?

Northern Arizona 19, Arizona State 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

ASU

36%

Success rate

48%

-0.06

EPA / pass

0.40

0.08

EPA / rush

0.77

41%

Early-down success

52%

38%

Pass success

46%

32%

Rush success

52%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

28%

20%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

66%

Pass rate

68%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.7

NORT

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

ASU

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		ASU
331	Total yards	458
242	Passing yards	257
89	Rushing yards	201
20	First downs	21
2-15	3rd down	2-10
3-5	4th down	2-3
26/42	Comp/Att	25/39
5.8	Yards per pass	6.6
3.1	Yards per rush	9.1
1	Turnovers	1
6-45	Penalties	12-93
31:34	Possession	28:26

Fourth downs

23 calls

NORT

13/14 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

ASU

8/9 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 11:13 NORT punt on 4th & 4 at NORT 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.22 points.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ASU 6/14 scoring drives

NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

ASUTD5 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 44Q1

ASUTD7 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1

NORTDOWNS8 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q1

ASUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 5Q1

NORTFG5 pl, 14 yds· opp 27Q1

ASUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 16 yds· own 30Q2

ASUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 8Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 37Q2

ASUFG9 pl, 47 yds· own 34Q2

NORTFG10 pl, 53 yds· own 19Q2

ASUMISS2 pl, 20 yds· own 40Q2

ASUTD5 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

NORTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

ASUPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 19Q3

ASUTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

NORTDOWNS11 pl, 33 yds· own 21Q3

ASUDOWNS4 pl, 4 yds· own 46Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· midfieldQ4

ASUINT5 pl, 29 yds· own 15Q4

NORTINT4 pl, 14 yds· own 33Q4

ASUTD3 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q4

NORTTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

ASUEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:20NORTKenveon Stone 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–38
• Q4 2:42ASUJordyn Tyson 16 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–38
• Q3 0:11ASUSam Leavitt 18 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)13–31
• Q3 8:14NORTNason Coleman 3 Yd pass from Ty Pennington (Samuel Hunsaker Kick)13–24
• Q3 12:24ASUSam Leavitt 52 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)6–24
• Q2 0:15NORTSamuel Hunsaker 46 Yd Field Goal 6–17
• Q2 1:55ASUJesus Gomez 36 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 14:14NORTSamuel Hunsaker 31 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 5:08ASUJordyn Tyson 19 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–14
• Q1 10:42ASURaleek Brown 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →