Waldo StadiumClosing line: UNT +-12.5 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
| WMU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
Team stats
UNTthis game · better side highlightedWMU
406
Total yards
303224
Passing yards
87182
Rushing yards
21623
First downs
18Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1310
UNT 1411
Projected spread
WMU +1.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNT
55% to win
Market spread
WMU +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WMU
10.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
WMU · market 24%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1310, UNT Elo 1411) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU +1.6 (45% to win) — 10.9 points of value on WMU versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)UNT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UNT.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge UNT.
Drive-by-drive
UNT 6/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 4/9 scoring drives
WMUPUNT10 pl, 37 yds· own 31Q1
UNTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 3Q1
WMUPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 48Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
WMU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Western Michigan?
North Texas 33, Western Michigan 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.