Sat, Sep 6, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
| WMU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1310, UNT Elo 1411) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU +1.6 (45% to win) — 10.9 points of value on WMU versus the market line of +12.5.
WMU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Texas 33, Western Michigan 30.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jalen Buckley run for 26 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST down
Jalen Buckley run for 26 yds to the UNT 31
Broc Lowry run for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
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