North Texas vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsWMU
- OT 0:00UNTMakenzie McGill II 3 Yd Run 33–30
- OT 0:00WMUPalmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal 27–30
- Q4 1:34UNTKali Nguma 25 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 10:03UNTCameron Dorner 4 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)24–27
- Q4 14:13WMUPalmer Domschke 43 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q3 4:40UNTTre Williams III 18 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)17–24
- Q3 6:33WMUBroc Lowry 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)10–24
- Q3 10:37UNTKali Nguma 22 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:00WMUPalmer Domschke 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 8:08WMUJalen Buckley 17 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:48UNTKiefer Sibley 10 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:33WMUBroc Lowry 25 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrew Mestemaker 18/33, 224 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMakenzie McGill 16 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWyatt Young 4 REC, 59 YDS
- PassBroc Lowry 5/10, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Buckley 30 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecJalen Buckley 2 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00UNT +80%
Makenzie McGill II 3 Yd Run
- Q3 6:10UNT +43%
Makenzie McGill II run for 14 yds to the UNT 47
- Q4 0:54WMU +43%
LOWRY, Broc pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Baylin thrown to the UNT14. PENALTY WMU Personal Foul on DABO, Gavin enforced 15 yards from the UNT4…
- Q4 1:28WMU +41%
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the WMU 43
- Q3 14:15UNT +35%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Willie Goodacre for 15 yds to the UNT 22, North Texas Penalty, holding (Brenden Reese)
- OT 0:00WMU +32%
Palmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Western Michigan?
North Texas 33, Western Michigan 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| UNT | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 406 | Total yards | 303 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 87 |
| 182 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 25 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/33 | Comp/Att | 7/14 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-81 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 23:22 | Possession | 36:38 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:08 WMU punt on 4th & 11 at UNT 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00UNTMakenzie McGill II 3 Yd Run 33–30
- OT 0:00WMUPalmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal 27–30
- Q4 1:34UNTKali Nguma 25 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 10:03UNTCameron Dorner 4 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)24–27
- Q4 14:13WMUPalmer Domschke 43 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q3 4:40UNTTre Williams III 18 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)17–24
- Q3 6:33WMUBroc Lowry 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)10–24
- Q3 10:37UNTKali Nguma 22 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:00WMUPalmer Domschke 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 8:08WMUJalen Buckley 17 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:48UNTKiefer Sibley 10 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:33WMUBroc Lowry 25 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1310, UNT Elo 1411 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU +1.6 (47% to win) — 10.9 points clear of WMU's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.9 (#34) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| +18 / +6 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 4.00 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →