North Dakota vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
North Dakota
Kansas State0-1
▸Final
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
NORTTeam statsKSU
354Total yards461
252Pass318
102Rush143
23First downs22
5-143rd down5-13
1Turnovers1
31:14Possession28:46
- Q4 0:42KSUJoe Jackson 6 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)35–38
- Q4 4:19NORTSawyer Seidl 20 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)35–31
- Q4 10:12NORTKorey Tai 22 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (C.J. Elrichs Kick)28–31
- Q3 3:41KSUDeVon Rice 13 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:41KSUDeVon Rice 9 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:24NORTSawyer Seidl 16 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)21–17
- Q2 4:15KSUJaron Tibbs 30 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:46NORTJerry Kaminski 1 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:55KSUJayce Brown 44 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:54NORTJerry Kaminski 0 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:26KSULuis Rodriguez 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Market line
KSU −27.5
Against the number
NORT covered
line KSU −27.5
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.4
- NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 36% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
KSU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KSU 100%
Closing line
KSU −27.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 35 – 38 KSU
North Dakota
- PassJerry Kaminski 23/38, 231 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSawyer Seidl 8 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaden Dennis 2 REC, 41 YDS
Kansas State
- PassAvery Johnson 28/43, 318 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJoe Jackson 11 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecJayce Brown 12 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
24.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
149
Points / snap
0.49
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
KSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of North Dakota vs. Kansas State?
North Dakota 35, Kansas State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
NORT
KSU
36%
Success rate
49%
0.08
EPA / pass
0.33
0.25
EPA / rush
0.27
36%
Early-down success
49%
36%
Pass success
46%
37%
Rush success
54%
15%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
15%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
25%
60%
Pass rate
62%
8.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.4
NORT
8.9 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
KSU
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Total yards | 461 |
| 252 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 28/43 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-36 |
| 31:14 | Possession | 28:46 |
NORT
5/7 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
KSU
4/7 with the model
−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 13:27 KSU punt on 4th & 1 at KSU 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KSU 6/13 scoring drives
KSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
KSUFG12 pl, 67 yds· own 21Q1
NORTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
KSUTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
KSUPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 26Q2
NORTTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
NORTFUM2 pl, -15 yds· opp 19Q2
KSUTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
NORTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
KSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 26Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
KSUTD10 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
KSUTD8 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 25Q3
KSUPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 46Q3
NORTTD9 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
KSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4
NORTTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
KSUDOWNS6 pl, 14 yds· own 44Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 42Q4
KSUTD10 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
NORTDOWNS6 pl, 12 yds· own 35Q4
KSUEND1 pl, -2 yds· opp 47Q4
- Q4 0:42KSUJoe Jackson 6 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)35–38
- Q4 4:19NORTSawyer Seidl 20 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)35–31
- Q4 10:12NORTKorey Tai 22 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (C.J. Elrichs Kick)28–31
- Q3 3:41KSUDeVon Rice 13 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:41KSUDeVon Rice 9 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:24NORTSawyer Seidl 16 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)21–17
- Q2 4:15KSUJaron Tibbs 30 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:46NORTJerry Kaminski 1 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:55KSUJayce Brown 44 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:54NORTJerry Kaminski 0 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:26KSULuis Rodriguez 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →