CEFCU StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| SJSU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SJSU 1423
UNM 1426
Projected spread
SJSU -2.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
SJSU
57% to win
Market spread
SJSU -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
57%
SJSU · market 54%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1423, UNM Elo 1426) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -2.3 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SJSU (top)UNM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SJSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- UNM pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- UNM rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge UNM.
Drive-by-drive
UNM 5/9 scoring drives← own end zone →SJSU 5/9 scoring drives
SJSUTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UNMINT9 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
SJSUTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SJSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
SJSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. San José State?
New Mexico 28, San José State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SJSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.