New Mexico vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsMINN
- OT 0:00MINNJalen Smith 12 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey17–20
- OT 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 36 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q4 0:00UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 36 yd FG17–14
- Q4 13:18UNMDamon Bankston 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jack Layne Pass to Keagan Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q4 13:18UNMB. Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds, D. Bankston returns for 100 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to K. Johnson GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q4 13:30MINNDarius Taylor 5 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–14
- Q4 13:30UNM#1 D.Taylor 5 yd rush (#92 B.Denaburg kick), 12-806–14
- Q4 13:30MINND. Taylor run for 5 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)6–14
- Q2 1:53MINNJalen Smith 10 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–7
- Q2 1:53MINND. Lindsey pass to J. Smith for 10 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)6–7
- Q2 6:14UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q2 6:14UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 29 yd FG, 11-346–0
- Q2 6:14UNML. Drzewiecki 29 yd FG GOOD6–0
- Q1 1:41UNMLuke Drzewiecki 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
- Q1 1:41UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 31 yd FG, 15-663–0
- Q1 1:41UNML. Drzewiecki 31 yd FG GOOD3–0
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 14/25, 88 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDamon Bankston 10 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecKeagan Johnson 4 REC, 42 YDS
- PassDrake Lindsey 18/28, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 24 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Smith 6 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Minnesota?
New Mexico 17, Minnesota 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| UNM | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 204 | Total yards | 252 |
| 88 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 17 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 3.1 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 9-87 |
| 30:29 | Possession | 29:31 |
- OT 0:00MINNJalen Smith 12 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey17–20
- OT 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 36 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q4 0:00UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 36 yd FG17–14
- Q4 13:18UNMDamon Bankston 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jack Layne Pass to Keagan Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q4 13:18UNMB. Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds, D. Bankston returns for 100 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to K. Johnson GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q4 13:30MINNDarius Taylor 5 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–14
- Q4 13:30UNM#1 D.Taylor 5 yd rush (#92 B.Denaburg kick), 12-806–14
- Q4 13:30MINND. Taylor run for 5 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)6–14
- Q2 1:53MINNJalen Smith 10 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–7
- Q2 1:53MINND. Lindsey pass to J. Smith for 10 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)6–7
- Q2 6:14UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q2 6:14UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 29 yd FG, 11-346–0
- Q2 6:14UNML. Drzewiecki 29 yd FG GOOD6–0
- Q1 1:41UNMLuke Drzewiecki 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
- Q1 1:41UNM#13 L.Drzewiecki 31 yd FG, 15-663–0
- Q1 1:41UNML. Drzewiecki 31 yd FG GOOD3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1510, UNM Elo 1500 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MINN -0.4 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNM | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →