| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 17 |
| MINN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1510, UNM Elo 1500) on a neutral field. That projects MINN -0.4 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: MINN · 4 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
New Mexico 17, Minnesota 20.
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MINN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
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