Nebraska vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsCIN
- Q4 7:15CINBrendan Sorsby 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–17
- Q4 10:36NEBDane Key 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)20–10
- Q3 6:53CINBrendan Sorsby 7 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:11NEBNyziah Hunter 5 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–3
- Q2 5:36NEBKyle Cunanan 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 14:56NEBKyle Cunanan 52 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:47CINStephen Rusnak 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDylan Raiola 33/42, 243 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEmmett Johnson 25 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecNyziah Hunter 6 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendan Sorsby 13/25, 69 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBrendan Sorsby 13 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCyrus Allen 5 REC, 41 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:10NEB +31%
Archie Wilson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CIN 9
- Q3 4:11CIN +30%
Archie Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 14
- Q4 0:00NEB +25%
D. Raiola takes a knee
- Q3 6:53CIN +23%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q2 0:11NEB +19%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
- Q4 6:56CIN +13%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 8 yds to the NEB 26
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Cincinnati?
Nebraska 20, Cincinnati 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| NEB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Total yards | 271 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 69 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 33/42 | Comp/Att | 13/25 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 2.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-27 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 39:30 | Possession | 20:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:11 NEB punt on 4th & 2 at NEB 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:15CINBrendan Sorsby 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–17
- Q4 10:36NEBDane Key 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)20–10
- Q3 6:53CINBrendan Sorsby 7 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:11NEBNyziah Hunter 5 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–3
- Q2 5:36NEBKyle Cunanan 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 14:56NEBKyle Cunanan 52 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:47CINStephen Rusnak 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1475, NEB Elo 1524 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CIN +2 (46% to win) — 4.0 points clear of CIN's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NEB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →