Monmouth vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Monmouth

0035

Charlotte0-2

▸0042

Final

Jerry Richardson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MONM	7	7	7	14	35
CLT	0	7	21	14	42

MONMTeam statsCLT

458Total yards563

410Pass382

48Rush181

28First downs29

5-123rd down8-12

0Turnovers3

26:52Possession33:08

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:30CLTConner Harrell 2 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)35–42
• Q4 3:19MONMJosh Derry 4 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)35–35
• Q4 8:37CLTE. Jai Mason 24 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)28–35
• Q4 14:55MONMRodney Nelson 8 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)28–28
• Q3 1:15CLTJoey Bearns III 4 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)21–28
• Q3 7:59CLTRod Gainey Jr. 1 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)21–21
• Q3 10:02MONMJosh Derry 29 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)21–14
• Q3 12:18CLTConner Harrell 8 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)14–14
• Q2 0:51MONMMaxwell James 15 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)14–7
• Q2 1:52CLTE. Jai Mason 7 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)7–7
• Q1 3:17MONMElijah Jennings 1 Yd Run (Hudson Fiene Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

CLT −2.5

Against the number

CLT covered

line CLT −2.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CLT 100%50%MONM 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CLT (top)MONM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CLT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CLT −2.5

Closing total

66.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MONM 35 – 42 CLT

Leaders

Monmouth

• PassDerek Robertson 36/49, 410 YDS, 4 TD
• RushRodney Nelson 11 CAR, 45 YDS
• RecJosh Derry 7 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD

Charlotte

• PassConner Harrell 26/30, 382 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushRod Gainey Jr. 15 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
• RecE. Jai Mason 10 REC, 228 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

152

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CLT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

CLT went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Fourth downs

15 calls

MONM gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.MONM 4/8 · CLT 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Monmouth vs. Charlotte?

Monmouth 35, Charlotte 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CLT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MONM

CLT

53%

Success rate

56%

0.37

EPA / pass

0.81

0.17

EPA / rush

0.04

60%

Early-down success

56%

54%

Pass success

66%

53%

Rush success

49%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

75%

Pass rate

42%

7.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

MONM

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

CLT

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MONM		CLT
458	Total yards	563
410	Passing yards	382
48	Rushing yards	181
28	First downs	29
5-12	3rd down	8-12
1-4	4th down	1-2
36/49	Comp/Att	26/30
8.4	Yards per pass	12.7
2.1	Yards per rush	4.3
0	Turnovers	3
6-65	Penalties	11-103
26:52	Possession	33:08

Fourth downs

15 calls

MONM

4/8 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

CLT

4/5 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 7:07 CLT punt on 4th & 9 at MONM 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MONM 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →CLT 6/12 scoring drives

MONMPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

CLTPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 27Q1

MONMPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 11Q1

CLTFUM3 pl, 7 yds· opp 29Q1

MONMTD7 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

CLTFUM7 pl, 44 yds· own 27Q1

MONMDOWNS9 pl, 40 yds· own 29Q2

CLTPUNT7 pl, 30 yds· own 31Q2

MONMPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 5Q2

CLTTD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

MONMTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

CLTINT4 pl, 22 yds· opp 45Q2

MONMEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q2

CLTTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

MONMTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

CLTTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

MONMDOWNS9 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q3

CLTTD9 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3

MONMTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

CLTTD11 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q4

MONMTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

CLTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

MONMDOWNS8 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4

CLTEND1 pl, -17 yds· opp 39Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:30CLTConner Harrell 2 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)35–42
• Q4 3:19MONMJosh Derry 4 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)35–35
• Q4 8:37CLTE. Jai Mason 24 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)28–35
• Q4 14:55MONMRodney Nelson 8 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)28–28
• Q3 1:15CLTJoey Bearns III 4 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)21–28
• Q3 7:59CLTRod Gainey Jr. 1 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)21–21
• Q3 10:02MONMJosh Derry 29 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)21–14
• Q3 12:18CLTConner Harrell 8 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)14–14
• Q2 0:51MONMMaxwell James 15 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Hudson Fiene Kick)14–7
• Q2 1:52CLTE. Jai Mason 7 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Liam Boyd Kick)7–7
• Q1 3:17MONMElijah Jennings 1 Yd Run (Hudson Fiene Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →