Miami vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsOSU
- Q4 0:55MIACharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)24–14
- Q4 13:28OSUJeremiah Smith 14 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–14
- Q3 3:01MIACarter Davis 49 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q3 8:10OSUBo Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:49MIAKeionte Scott 72 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:31MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 9 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MIA ahead, below = OSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassCarson Beck 19/26, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 19 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecCJ Daniels 5 REC, 49 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 22/35, 287 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBo Jackson 11 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Smith 7 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Ohio State?
Miami 24, Ohio State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 291 | Total yards | 332 |
| 138 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 33:20 | Possession | 26:40 |
- Q4 0:55MIACharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)24–14
- Q4 13:28OSUJeremiah Smith 14 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–14
- Q3 3:01MIACarter Davis 49 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q3 8:10OSUBo Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:49MIAKeionte Scott 72 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:31MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 9 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2169, MIA Elo 1973 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects OSU -7.8 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#61 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #55 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #41 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| MIA | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →