← All games
Miami vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Thu, Jan 1, 12:30 AM
AT&T StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| OSU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2169
MIA 1973
Projected spread
OSU -7.8
neutral site
Model pick
OSU
72% to win
Market spread
OSU -7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
72%
OSU · market 73%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2169, MIA Elo 1973) on a neutral field. That projects OSU -7.8 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMIA 28% · OSU 72%
Market consensusMIA 27% · OSU 73%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MIA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOSU
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.3146%
Success rate
52%1.16
Explosiveness
1.164.36
Pts / opportunity
4.8383%
Power success
73%Defense
0.05
PPA allowed / play
-0.0237%
Success rate allowed
34%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.0719%
Havoc rate
16%20%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge OSU.
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge MIA.
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge MIA.
Drive-by-drive
MIA 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →OSU 3/10 scoring drives
MIAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
OSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 24Q1
MIAFUM8 pl, 42 yds· own 39Q1
OSUPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 19Q1
MIATD13 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
OSUTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q2
OSUPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2
MIAPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 11Q2
OSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 9Q2
MIAPUNT8 pl, 18 yds· own 42Q2
OSUMISS12 pl, 67 yds· own 2Q2
MIAEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 31Q2
OSUTD11 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q3
MIAFG9 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q3
OSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MIAPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
OSUPUNT7 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4
MIATD10 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
OSUINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4
MIAEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 44Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MIA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
MIA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Ohio State?
Miami 24, Ohio State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had OSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.