McNeese vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

McNeese

0010

Louisiana0-1

▸0034

Final

Cajun Field

	1	2	3	4	T
MCNE	7	0	3	0	10
UL	7	10	0	17	34

MCNETeam statsUL

238Total yards401

191Pass86

47Rush315

14First downs25

4-123rd down4-11

2Turnovers0

25:43Possession34:17

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:39ULSteven Blanco 34 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–34
• Q4 3:48ULLandon Baptiste 10 Yd pass from Daniel Beale (Tony Sterner Kick)10–27
• Q4 10:41ULTony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal 10–20
• Q3 11:50MCNEFabrizio Pinton 45 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 0:00ULTony Sterner 38 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:06ULBill Davis 36 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:08MCNEDevin Lippold 2 Yd Run (Fabrizio Pinton Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:58ULBill Davis 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UL −19

Against the number

UL covered

line UL −19

What the numbers say

• UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MCNE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 5.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UL 100%50%MCNE 100%

Kickoff142 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UL (top)MCNE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UL −19

Closing total

50.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MCNE 10 – 34 UL

Leaders

McNeese

• PassJake Strong 19/30, 191 YDS, 1 INT
• RushBryce Strong 7 CAR, 17 YDS
• RecJosh Jackson 4 REC, 83 YDS

Louisiana

• PassDaniel Beale 14/22, 86 YDS, 1 TD
• RushBill Davis 19 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
• RecKeDarius Wade 1 REC, 19 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

UL went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Fourth downs

16 calls

MCNE gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.MCNE 6/8 · UL 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of McNeese vs. Louisiana?

McNeese 10, Louisiana 34.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MCNE

UL

38%

Success rate

44%

-0.15

EPA / pass

-0.08

0.07

EPA / rush

0.36

38%

Early-down success

44%

39%

Pass success

35%

36%

Rush success

51%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

20%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

55%

Pass rate

41%

5.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.1

MCNE

5.2 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

UL

9.1 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MCNE		UL
238	Total yards	401
191	Passing yards	86
47	Rushing yards	315
14	First downs	25
4-12	3rd down	4-11
2-3	4th down	2-3
19/30	Comp/Att	14/22
6.4	Yards per pass	3.9
1.8	Yards per rush	7.0
2	Turnovers	0
8-105	Penalties	6-55
25:43	Possession	34:17

Fourth downs

16 calls

MCNE

6/8 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

UL

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 12:06 MCNE go for it on 4th & 8 at UL 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.47 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MCNE 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →UL 6/10 scoring drives

ULTD5 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

MCNETD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

ULMISS12 pl, 66 yds· own 23Q1

MCNEPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q1

ULPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 7Q1

MCNEDOWNS9 pl, 31 yds· own 30Q2

ULMISS10 pl, 25 yds· own 39Q2

MCNEINT6 pl, 38 yds· own 36Q2

ULTD6 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 2Q2

ULFG4 pl, 35 yds· own 44Q2

MCNEFG8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3

ULDOWNS9 pl, 39 yds· own 36Q3

MCNEPUNT7 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3

ULFG12 pl, 65 yds· own 15Q3

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 17Q4

ULTD9 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q4

MCNEFUM6 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q4

ULTD1 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q4

MCNEEND4 pl, 18 yds· own 21Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:39ULSteven Blanco 34 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–34
• Q4 3:48ULLandon Baptiste 10 Yd pass from Daniel Beale (Tony Sterner Kick)10–27
• Q4 10:41ULTony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal 10–20
• Q3 11:50MCNEFabrizio Pinton 45 Yd Field Goal 10–17
• Q2 0:00ULTony Sterner 38 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:06ULBill Davis 36 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:08MCNEDevin Lippold 2 Yd Run (Fabrizio Pinton Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:58ULBill Davis 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →