Louisville vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsPITT
- Q4 7:03LOUNate Kurisky 9 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)34–27
- Q4 10:49LOUJaleel Skinner 12 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)27–27
- Q3 11:44LOUNick Keller 57 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q2 0:19PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 38 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–27
- Q2 1:42PITTTrey Butkowski 37 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 3:42LOUChris Bell 25 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)17–17
- Q2 5:03LOUCooper Ranvier 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:32LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:41PITTRasheem Biles 75 Yd Interception Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–17
- Q1 9:53PITTCataurus Hicks 39 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:34PITTTrey Butkowski 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PITT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassMiller Moss 33/51, 339 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDuke Watson 14 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecChris Bell 10 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- PassEli Holstein 14/26, 228 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 6 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecCataurus Hicks 4 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:03LOU +29%
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q1 11:34PITT +18%
Trey Butkowski 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 9:57LOU +16%
Isaac Brown run for 9 yds to the PITT 21
- Q4 12:30LOU +7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 37 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST down
- Q4 6:47PITT +7%
Shotgun Goff,Juelz rush middle for 19 yards gain to the Pitt47 (Hutchinson,D'Angelo; Gordon,Corey) PENALTY Pitt Holding (Persi,Jeffrey) 10 yards from Pitt28 to Pitt18.…
- Q3 1:48LOU +7%
PENALTY UL False Start (Robinson,Lance) 5 yards from UL28 to UL23. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Pittsburgh?
Louisville 34, Pittsburgh 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| LOU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 339 |
| 339 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 53 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 23 | First downs | 14 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 33/51 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 9-92 | Penalties | 6-38 |
| 39:22 | Possession | 20:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:51 LOU punt on 4th & 2 at LOU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:03LOUNate Kurisky 9 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)34–27
- Q4 10:49LOUJaleel Skinner 12 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)27–27
- Q3 11:44LOUNick Keller 57 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q2 0:19PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 38 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–27
- Q2 1:42PITTTrey Butkowski 37 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 3:42LOUChris Bell 25 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)17–17
- Q2 5:03LOUCooper Ranvier 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:32LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:41PITTRasheem Biles 75 Yd Interception Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–17
- Q1 9:53PITTCataurus Hicks 39 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:34PITTTrey Butkowski 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1506, LOU Elo 1755 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +7.6 (32% to win) — 4.6 points clear of LOU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 11–11 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| LOU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.6 (#18) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#23) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →