| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 0 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 34 |
| PITT | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1506, LOU Elo 1755) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT +7.6 (29% to win) — 4.6 points of value on LOU versus the market line of +3.
PITT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisville 34, Pittsburgh 27.
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Miller Moss pass intercepted Rasheem Biles return for 75 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Antonio Watts return for no gain to the LOU 2
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 56 yds to the LOU 4 for a 1ST down
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